CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-07-23T04:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-07-23T04:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40201/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 and as a faint partial halo to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Source is a small filament seen lifting off at 2025-07-23T02:06Z. Post-eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 spanning from S00 to S10 and from W15 to W25, but the filamentary material itself can be seen lifting off as far north as N20E05. POSSIBLE arrival observed around 2025-07-26T07:37Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components (Btotal maximum: 11nT) followed by a smooth rotation, likely indicating the presence a flux rope. A gradual increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~480 to 580 km/s. From Sanchita Pal, LASSOS team: The start time of the flux rope is likely around 2025-07-26T16:20Z, after that the density and temperature decrease. Before this timestamp, density is high. This preceding signature with high density could be because a pile-up of the solar wind material or could be a sheath. Inside the flux rope B_radial component is high, it means the flux rope can be crossed with a larger distance from the center to the spacecraft propagation path. Mostly small/no-rotation in field line vector means either(1) the CME flux rope is crossed through flank or (2) the flux rope is crossed by spacecraft keeping a large distance from the center.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-26T07:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-27T07:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.67 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: ----------------- Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Jul 24 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... ...A filament eruption was observed near 23/0500 UTC centered near N07W12. The associated CME was then observed first in STEREO A coronagraph imagery around 23/0523 UTC with what is perhaps a secondary portion of the filament eruption then becoming visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery near 23/0748 UTC, which appears as a very faint, partial halo. Modeling of this event determined an arrival at Earth near mid UTC day on 27 July. -----------------Lead Time: 62.65 hour(s)
Difference: -23.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-07-23T16:58Z
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